India Ascendant

I read Tom Friedman's "The World is Flat" last year, but it was during a massage at my in-law's home in Delhi that I saw and heard for myself the impact the impact that technology is having on the country. Prem, the masseuse, shows up at the house on his bike. But while he's rubbing my shoulders and working out the kinks from the flight over, he takes three calls on his cell phone. I don't speak Hindi, but my guess is that Prem is taking calls from clients and arranging appointments. This would have been impossible three years ago and laughable ten years ago. The vegetable hawker still goes around the neighborhood, calling out his produce from the street, but now he's also taking calls on HIS cellphone from the houses, who order their produce by phone and have it sent up. When the guy with the fruit and veggie cart is wielding a Nokia, then you know that technology has trickled down and is changing people's lives and business.

India, quite simply, is booming. Construction is going on all over Delhi. A major highway from the airport is nearing completion. Home values are soaring. Luxury villas and high rises are sprouting in Gurgaon to cater to the new class of business execs--most of who are in their 30s and are living lives that their parents could not have imagined.

I remember Delhi six years ago--old, white Ambassador cars plied the roads, looking like extras from a 1950s film. Now it's Toyotas, Hondas, Suzukis, and even Mercedes that are cruising Delhi's avenues and roundabouts. The pall of smog that once hung over the city from stinking two stroke petrol autorickshaws and diesel buses has been greatly reduced--thanks to an innovative and highly successful program to convert urban transport to clean, fuel efficient compressed natural gas (CNG).

There is a certain swagger among the new class, which is riding the economic boom that is driven by the tech sector and outsourcing of services to India from the US and Europe. I met a guy around my age in the park while playing with Devin on the jungle gym. He works for British Telecom. He said that he'd studied in London, and was planning on staying abroad, but returned home and is now an exec, making a good salary and enjoying a lifestyle that is on par or beyond what any upper-middle class family could have in the US. Travel abroad to Indonesia and Australia, several full time help in the house to take care of domestic chores and child care--he smiled and said "This wouldn't be possible in London". Uh, yeah. No way.

My wife's cousin returned to India after getting his MBA in the US in the mid-late 90s. At the time, he thought he'd miss out on the opportunity to apply his skills and talents at a top flight company in the US. Now he's a director for Dell in India and is managing projects around South and Southeast Asia. He got in when the wave was still forming in the ocean and is now riding it all the way to shore.

I have had the privilege of living, working, and traveling in many developing countries. It's a well known and depressing fact that the well educated professional class that should form the backbone of the civil service, private sector, and NGO community are generally found here in DC, or NYC, or Europe, Australia, Singapore, etc. Talented people who have good skills want to deploy them where they can be most effective and reap the material rewards for their labor. I have no empirical data to support this statement, but when the best and brightest of any country return home from overseas study or jobs or never emigrate in the first place because they believe that great opportunities await them in their home country, then that country has reached a turning point in its development cycle. Based on what I saw and heard while I was there, India has reached that point, and it's great to see.

In a recent email my father-in-law said "I read an interesting statistic the other day. Before the British India Company came to India, India and China contributed 65 % to the GDP of the World when Britain's contribution was only 2 %. I have no doubt both India and China will contribute to the world GDP at the level of 1757 by 2050. "

At this rate there is no doubt that world economic and diplomatic power will shift dramatically towards Asia in the next 43 years. I wouldn't bet against my father-in-law's prediction.